Saturday, December 16, 2006

College football bowl predictions

I'm 133-38 on straight-up picks this season. Let's see how it goes with the bowls.

Poinsettia Bowl: Northern Illinois vs TCU
TCU is a legitimate ranked team. NIU is 4th place in the MAC. TCU will win.

Las Vegas Bowl: Oregon vs BYU
Should be a great game. BYU has looked good lately, but came up short in two tries this season against BCS conference schools, and Oregon is no pushover. The Ducks have lost 4 of their last 5 against I-A teams, though, so I'm picking the Cougars to win.

New Orleans Bowl: Rice vs Troy
What? Who versus WHO? Actually I always find myself rooting for little Troy. They go out and schedule multiple top-quality non-conference opponents every season. But unfortunately, steamrolling through the Sunbelt isn't the most impressive feat, and Rice will want the game more. Owls win.

Birmingham Bowl: South Florida vs East Carolina
Both these teams are better than they get credit for, but South Florida is the better between them. They beat West Virginia and only fell to Rutgers by two.

New Mexico Bowl: San Jose St vs New Mexico
This bowl may accomplish what I thought was impossible: Match up a pair of teams worse than the two in the New Orleans Bowl. Somebody has to win, so I'll pick SJS.

Armed Forces Bowl: Utah vs Tulsa
Tulsa has struggled a bit lately and Utah has been doing well, but my gut says Tulsa.

Hawaii Bowl: Arizona State vs Hawaii
There are a few "rules" I have when making bowl picks. One of them is "never pick against Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl". Rainbow Warriors will win.

Motor City Bowl: Central Michigan vs Middle Tenn. St.
I thought we were through with the Who Cares Bowls. Anyway, another of my rules is "don't pick teams from the Sun Belt". Central Michigan will win.

Emerald Bowl: UCLA vs Florida State
UCLA beat USC. FSU lost to NC State. I remember a few years ago when Bobby Bowden said "we don't play to go to the Gator Bowl". I wonder how he'll feel after losing the Emerald.

Independence Bowl: Oklahoma St vs Alabama
Interesting matchup. Neither team is very good most of the time, but both are capable of playing up on occasion. 'Bama came close a couple of times in the SEC, and OSU beat Nebraska. This game will come down to which team shows up, and I really have no idea who it will be. I'll pick Alabama because I have to pick someone.

Holiday Bowl: Texas A&M vs Cal
Cal has looked awfully vulnerable the last few weeks, but they simply have more talent than A&M. The Bears *should* win, and though my gut is screaming otherwise, they're my pick.

Texas Bowl: Rutgers vs Kansas State
Yikes. That's a helluva drop-off for Rutgers. One more win and they were in the BCS. Normally I'd be tempted to pick an upset behind a wave of "good team isn't motivated for shitty bowl", but this is Rutgers. No matter the circumstances, they're happy to be playing. And though Kansas State is rising and could once again be a B12 North factor in the coming years, the Knights will win this one.

Music City Bowl: Clemson vs Kentucky
Clemson only loses big games. This isn't one. Tigers win.

Sun Bowl: Oregon State vs Missouri
The Tigers fooled me for exactly one week this year, when they were 6-0. But it was a fluke. They suck. Since then they're 2-4. Meanwhile, Oregon State has 7 of its last 8.

Liberty Bowl: Houston vs South Carolina
Houston has had an awfully good year, while SC's best non-rivalry win came against, uh, Kentucky. The Cougars will be out to prove themselves, and will win.

Insight Bowl: Texas Tech vs Minnesota
Tech took a step back this year, but not THAT far. Gophers wouldn't even be going to a bowl if we still had 11 game schedules. Raiders win.

Champs Sports Bowl: Purdue vs Maryland
Purdue survived in a weak B10 (after the top 3). Maryland was a couple of bad throws away from winning a very tough division. I pick Maryland, but it will come down to if Hollenbach (MD's QB) can keep the interceptions down.

Meineke Bowl: Navy vs Boston College
What Navy does is remarkable, but they don't have a chance against BC.

International Bowl: Western Michigan vs Cincinnati
Cincinnati has fared pretty well against the MAC this year. Bearcats.

GMAC Bowl: Ohio vs Southern Miss
I like the matchup. Could see it going either way. Will pick Ohio with a gun to my head.

Alamo Bowl: Iowa vs Texas
With or without Colt McCoy, there's no reason Texas shouldn't win this game.

Peach Bowl*: Virginia Tech vs Georgia
The Bulldogs have managed to turn things around here, but Tech is a nationally elite team that somehow slipped through the cracks. They dominated Wake in Durham and Clemson still hasn't recovered from their game with the Hokies. Tech will win.

MPC Computers Bowl: Miami (FL) vs Nevada
Nevada will be worked up for the biggest game in the program's history. Nobody in Miami will care. Considering the Hurricanes suck anyway, I smell a Nevada victory.

Outback Bowl: Tennessee vs Penn State
The Lions are the best of the mediocre B10 teams. They beat who they're supposed to beat and lose to who they're supposed to lose to. Tennessee will win.

Cotton Bowl: Auburn vs Nebraska
Nebraska is getting better, but they're not there yet. Auburn.

Gator Bowl: Georgia Tech vs West Virginia
I'm not sure I'd pick GT to beat much of anybody right now. But one of the country's most unstoppable offenses? Forget about it. West Virginia easy.

Citrus Bowl*: Arkansas vs Wisconsin
Toss up. Nobody has any idea how good Wisconsin is. Arkansas is good, but was clearly a bit overrated. I guess I'll pick Wisconsin, but I'm not confident about it.

Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs Oklahoma
I do think Boise has a chance, and if the game were on the blue turf I'd think seriously about picking them. But Oklahoma is too good on a neutral site.

Orange Bowl: Wake Forest vs Louisville
My head says Louisville, but this is a dream season for Wake... and they keep proving me wrong. So I'm done picking against them until they lose again. Wake.

Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame vs LSU
If Notre Dame wins I don't think I'll be the only shocked football fan. Tigers.

Rose Bowl: USC vs Michigan
The Trojans are a legit top 10 team, but I don't think they can hang with Michigan *if* Michigan shows up ready with its A game. If the Wolverines can get past the emotional blows of losing to OSU and then watching one team after another move above them in the polls, they'll win.

Championship Game: Florida vs Ohio State
It will be an absolute travesty if Ohio State - the team that's *already* twice beaten the number 2 team - doesn't win the national championship. But that having been said, wouldn't it be poetic justice for FL to do to the Bucks what the Bucks did to another Florida school just a couple of years ago? Wouldn't it be fitting in this topsy turvy year where Wake Forest and Rutgers have fewer losses between them than USC and Texas if the undisputed best team in the land lost the title game to a team lucky just to be there in the first place?
Oh man.
Man oh man.
Tressel is the man.
Bucks win.

* I refuse to call them the Chick-fil-A and Capital One Bowls.

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